The best predictor of economic growth over a four year
presidential term is the party in the White house for that period.
From 1960 until 2004, the real GDP grew an average of 17%
during Democratic presidential terms, and an average of less than
12% during Republican presidential terms. The economy never
grew as rapidly as the Democratic average during any single
Republican 4-year term, and it never grew as slowly as the
Republican average during any single Democratic 4-year term.
There is less than one chance in 64 that these differences could be caused by chance. More about this and other questions as to causation at: Alternative Explanations.
Here are the growths of real Gross domestic product over the four year terms. First, the terms with a Democrat in the White House:
| 61 - 64 | 19.86% |
| 65 - 68 | 21.81% |
| 77 - 80 | 13.67% |
| 93 - 96 | 13.53% |
| 97 - 2000 | 17.87% |
| . | |
| Mean | 17.35% |
| SD | 3.70% |
"SD" is the (sample) standard deviation.
Then terms with Republican presidents:
| 69 - 72 | 12.38% |
| 73 - 76 | 10.62% |
| 81 - 84 | 12.63% |
| 85 - 88 | 15.98% |
| 89 - 92 | 8.81% |
| 2001 - 2004 | 9.56% |
| . | |
| Mean | 11.66% |
| SD | 2.60% |
The mean for the entire period, 11 terms, is 13.86%; and the
standard deviation is 4.2%.
The raw data are:
| Year | RGDP (in billions of 2000 $) | % increase from previously listed year |
|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 2,501.8 | |
| 64 | 2,998.6 | 19.86 |
| 68 | 3,652.7 | 21.81 |
| 72 | 4,105.0 | 12.38 |
| 76 | 4,540.9 | 10.62 |
| 80 | 5,161.7 | 13.67 |
| 84 | 5,813.6 | 12.63 |
| 88 | 6,742.7 | 15.98 |
| 92 | 7,336.6 | 8.81 |
| 96 | 8,328.9 | 13.53 |
| 2000 | 9,817.0 | 17.87 |
| 04 | 10,755.7 | 9.56 |
RGDP (real gross domestic product) is from
Economic Report of the President - 2006 .. The
percent change is from the previously listed year, and calculated by
a commercial spreadsheet.