The Party of Growth



Republican advocates claim that their party is interested in growth, while the Democrats are only interested in redistribution. Well, the Republican Party may be interested in growth, but they are remarkably inept at delivering growth. From 1948 until 2008, there were 15 administrations. The four with the highest rates of growth were all Democrats. The four with the lowest rates of growth were all Republicans.

The growth is measured by the change in Real Gross Domestic Product from the inaugural year to the next inaugural year. There are other ways of measuring economic growth, and each of them would show slightly different specifics. There is no reasonable measurement, however, which shows Republican administrations outperforming Democratic administrations. (Even if you hypothesize a 4-year lead time, so that each administration is credited with the growth during the next, the Democrats come out somewhat better.)

The average growth rate during Democratic administrations is 4.35% / year, and no Republican administration has come anywhere near that high for the entire term. The average growth rate during Republican administrations is 2.56% / year, and no Democratic administration has had growth that low averaged over an entire term. Obama's recovery from the Bush train wreck may be slow enough to change the second sentence, but it will not lower the Democratic average enough to get a Republican term near it.

Let's first see the administrations in order of growth.

President years RGDP 4-year
growth
% Annual
growth
% Rank
H. S
Truman
1949
1953
1,843.1
2,345.2
1.27242 27.24 1.06208 6.21 1
Kennedy
Johnson
1961
1965
2,894.4
3,607.0
1.24620 24.62 1.05656 5.66 2
L. B.
Johnson
1965
1969
3,607.0
4,258.2
1.18054 18.05 1.04237 4.24 3
Bill
Clinton 1
1993
1997
8,516.2
9,845.9
1.15614 15.61 1.03694 3.69 4
R. M.
Nixon
1969
1973
4,258.2
4,912.8
1.15373 15.37 1.03640 3.64 5
Bill
Clinton 2
1997
2001
9,845.9
11,337.5
1.15149 15.15 1.035894 3.59 6
Ronald
Reagan 2
1985
1989
6,843.4
7,879.2
1.15136 15.14 1.03586 3.59 7
Ronald
Reagan 1
1981
1985
5,982.1
6,843.4
1.14398 14.40 1.03420 3.42 8
D. D.
Eisenhower 2
1957
1961
2,598.8
2,894.4
1.11374 11.37 1.02730 2.73 9
G. W
Bush 1
2001
2005
11,337.5
12,623.0
1.11338 11.34 1.02721 2.72 10
Jimmy
Carter
1977
1981
5,373.1
5,982.1
1.11334 11.33 1.02721 2.72 11
D. D.
Eisenhower 1
1953
1957
2,345.2
2,598.8
1.10814 10.81 1.02600 2.60 12
Nixon
Ford
1973
1977
4,912.8
5,373.1
1.09369 9.37 1.02264 2.26 13
G. H. W.
Bush
1989
1993
7,879.2
8,516.2
1.08084 8.08 1.01963 1.96 14
G. W
Bush 2
2005
2009
12,623.0
12,703.1
1.00635 0.63 1.00158 0.16 15

The RGDP is first for the inaugural year, and then for the next inaugural year. Both 4-year growth and annual growth are ratios. The annual growth ratios are chosen so that the fourth power of each is the 4-year growth ratio. I've followed these with the percent increase, first for the 4-year term, and then the annualized rate. Your eye should tell you how that follows from the preceding figure.

So, why should you believe Frank Palmer? You shouldn't. You should check it out. First, the same data in the original, historical order. (At this point, the RGDP gets a little repetitive.)

President years RGDP 4-year
growth
% Annual
growth
% Rank
H. S
Truman
1949
1953
1,843.1
2,345.2
1.27242 27.24 1.06208 6.21 1
D. D.
Eisenhower 1
1953
1957
2,345.2
2,598.8
1.10814 10.81 1.02600 2.60 12
D. D.
Eisenhower 2
1957
1961
2,598.8
2,894.4
1.11374 11.37 1.02730 2.73 9
Kennedy
Johnson
1961
1965
2,894.4
3,607.0
1.24620 24.62 1.05656 5.66 2
L. B.
Johnson
1965
1969
3,607.0
4,258.2
1.18054 18.05 1.04237 4.24 3
R. M.
Nixon
1969
1973
4,258.2
4,912.8
1.15373 15.37 1.03640 3.64 5
Nixon
Ford
1973
1977
4,912.8
5,373.1
1.09369 9.37 1.02264 2.26 13
Jimmy
Carter
1977
1981
5,373.1
5,982.1
1.11334 11.33 1.02721 2.72 11
Ronald
Reagan 1
1981
1985
5,982.1
6,843.4
1.14398 14.40 1.03420 3.42 8
Ronald
Reagan 2
1985
1989
6,843.4
7,879.2
1.15136 15.14 1.03586 3.59 7
G. H. W.
Bush
1989
1993
7,879.2
8,516.2
1.08084 8.08 1.01963 1.96 14
Bill
Clinton 1
1993
1997
8,516.2
9,845.9
1.15614 15.61 1.03694 3.69 4
Bill
Clinton 2
1997
2001
9,845.9
11,337.5
1.15149 15.15 1.035894 3.59 6
G. W
Bush 1
2001
2005
11,337.5
12,623.0
1.11338 11.34 1.02721 2.72 10
G. W
Bush 2
2005
2009
12,623.0
12,703.1
1.00635 0.63 1.00158 0.16 15

Anyway, you can check the St. Louis Federal Reserve reports on real GDP to see that my reports on RGDP are correct.

Then check my division. Admittedly, checking my work means a lot of arithmetic, especially if you check my fourth roots. Still, any small sample would detect a fraud if I were committing fraud. (For that matter, the order of the terms doesn't require the annual growth and percentage figures at all. Checking my fourth roots only verifies the arithmetic, not the ordering.)